www.tipnews.info
June 29, 2015
Wyplosz Charles
Wyplosz Charles
Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva; Director of the International Centre for Money and Banking Studies.
The ECB has decided to maintain its current level of emergency liquidity to Greece (ECB 2015). By refusing to extend additional emergency liquidity, the ECB has decided that Greece must leave the Eurozone. This may be a legal necessity or a political judgement call, or both. Anyway, it raises a host of unpleasant questions about the treatment of a member country and about the i...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Ben Carson said the United States has more oil and natural gas than Russia. Not so. The U.S. recently passed Russia in production of petroleum and natural gas, but estimates put Russia’s proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas way ahead of the U.S. Carson, a Republican presidential contender, made the claim while talking about his foreign relations goals during a Jun...
Minouche Shafik
Minouche Shafik
Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking, Bank of England
UK long-term yields are so low? There is much debate about what financial markets are telling us about our long term economic future. In the UK, the yield on 25-year nominal government debt is around 2¾% which – recent moves not withstanding – is exceptionally low by historical standards (Chart 1). Chart 1. Nominal gilt yields
Bernard Hoekman
Bernard Hoekman
Director of the Global Economics Program, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute; CEPR
A new CEPR/VoxEU eBook, The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal?, presents a broad analysis of why world trade has seen such a marked growth deceleration. Peak trade: Temporary trend or new normal? One of the ‘stylised facts’ of the last six decades is that international trade has grown faster than global production and income. This contrasts sharpl...
Stefan Szymanski
Stefan Szymanski
Stephen J. Galetti Collegiate Professor of Sport Management, University of Michigan
In 2014 Real Madrid, a major football team, achieved the unprecedented feat of winning ‘La Décima’. It was their tenth Champions League title, and it marked the team winning three more than their its nearest rival, AC Milan, and twice as many as the next nearest teams – Bayern Munich, Liverpool and Barcelona. For the last ten years the club has also topped Deloitte’s Money Leag...
Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) scored a dramatic victory on 23 June 2015, persuading 60 senators to head off a filibuster against Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), the minimum number needed. TPA will be enacted by the Senate this week, as the bill itself requires just 51 affirmative votes. At the same time, Trade Adjustment Assistance (T...
Richard Baldwin
Richard Baldwin
Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute, Geneva; CEPR Policy Director, and VoxEU.org Editor-in-Chief
Most economists, and even many EU leaders, now think the Eurozone’s handling of the Greek Crisis is a tragedy of poor policy. Much of the pain that has been and will be felt by Greeks and other Europeans could have been avoided. The folly of the Eurozone’s choices on Greece was pointed out clearly in early analysis by Vox columnists right from the beginning. This is what Vox wa...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina says that “so little” of the charitable donations to the Clinton Foundation “actually go to charitable works” — a figure CARLY for America later put at about 6 percent of its annual revenues — but Fiorina is simply wrong. Fiorina and others are referring only to the amount donated by the Clinton Foundation to outside charities,...
Igal Hendel
Igal Hendel
Ida C. Cook Professor of Economics and co-director of the Center for the Study of Industrial Organization, Northwestern University
Social media such as Facebook and Twitter play an increasingly important role in facilitating political mobilisation. The 2009-2010 Iranian election protests and the 2011 uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia are well known examples, but social media also played a major role in the popular protests in Bulgaria, Turkey, Brazil, and Bosnia in 2013 (Faiola and Moura 2013) and it also see...
Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano
Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano
Professor of Economics, LSE; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Bruegel; and CEPR Research Fellow
The volume of international trade in services has grown rapidly over recent decades and, in fact, has outpaced growth in goods trade. Over the period 1980 to 2011 global goods trade grew on average by 7.3% annually, while services trade grew by 8.2% per year (WTO 2013). Over the same period many developed countries experienced rapid growth in immigration. Since the seminal p...
Simon J Evenett
Simon J Evenett
Member of the Warwick Commission on the Future of the Multilateral Trading System after Doha. Co-Director of the CEPR Programme in International Trade and Regional Economics.
Conventional wisdom has it that the multilateral trading system was tested during the global economic crisis and passed with flying colours. No 1930s-style raising of import barriers occurred ergo trade distortions were kept under control, or so the argument goes. This rosy view has been called into question as more data on global trade dynamics has come to light. Some have eve...
Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Probably not. But at the moment, the fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) rests on the shoulders of just 28 House Democrats who voted for Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) on Friday 12 June 2015. Pressure on these 28 Congressmen will be intense – like slabs of hot steel passing through a rolling mill. To explain why, we need to revisit the arcane legislative background. ...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Sen. Ted Cruz has criticized President Obama and the White House for not mentioning how religious discrimination fueled terrorist attacks in Paris and Libya this year. But to make his point, Cruz focuses on certain remarks and ignores others. Discussing the killing of four people at a Jewish supermarket in Paris, Cruz claimed Obama “described that attack as a, quote...
Paolo Manasse
Paolo Manasse
Professor of Macroeconomics and International Economic Policy at the University of Bologna
Figure 1 shows the Greek real GDP since 1990, along with Germany’s and Italy’s, all normalised to 100 at the beginning of the period. The Greek GDP took off in the second half of the 90s. At its peak in 2008, it had grown by 65%, cumulatively. The following hard landing was equally impressive, but much more rapid. By 2013, GDP had fallen back to its 2000 level. Figur...
Kenneth Rogoff
Kenneth Rogoff
Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics at Harvard.
Jeremy Bulow
Jeremy Bulow
Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University
The ongoing Greek and Argentine debt negotiations underscore the crucial importance of understanding the relative bargaining positions of debtor countries, official institutions, creditors and the international community at large. Yet, in academic research, the most fundamental question of all remains unresolved: what can foreign creditors really do to a sovereign country th...
Michael Weber
Michael Weber
Assistant Professor of Finance at the Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
From the Great Recession to the present day, policymakers around the world have been arguing about which policies may increase aggregate demand and bring the economy back to its steady-state growth path. The major problem is that conventional policies – such as lowering nominal interest rates – are not in the policy toolbox because rates have hi...
Virginia Di Nino
Virginia Di Nino
Economist in the Emerging Markets and International Trade Division, Banca d’Italia
The beneficial effects of trade on the economy depend mostly on the fact that trade enhances competition and favours resource reallocation towards the best firms. Promoting exports is then a policy that allows countries to improve their economic performance, boost GDP growth, and create new and better jobs. This policy, however, can be effective only to the extent that it corre...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Democratic presidential contender Martin O’Malley claims that “70 percent of us are earning the same or less than they were 12 years ago.” That’s not correct. Actually, weekly paychecks for rank-and-file workers are 6.6 percent higher than they were a dozen years ago, even after adjusting for inflation. O’Malley was citing figures that don’t reflect a spike in real wages and...
Michael Keen
Michael Keen
Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
‘Informality’ troubles policymakers in developing countries because it is seen as being associated with low productivity and poverty. Cross-sectional differences in rates of informality do seem to suggest that development is associated with declining informality (see Figure 1). And yet, despite these expectations, informality as conventionally m...
Timothy J Hatton
Timothy J Hatton
Professor of Economics, Australian National University and University of Essex; and Research Fellow, CEPR
One of the long-run consequences of the Arab Spring and the war in the Middle East is the mounting stream of migrants boarding boats in North Africa and making for Europe. In 2014, 170,000 were rescued and an estimated 3,419 died making this perilous crossing. This year the number is likely to be far greater. Not surprisingly, policymakers at the highest level have been urged t...
Niklas Gadatsch
Niklas Gadatsch
Economist at the German Council of Economic Experts
The financial crisis of 2007-2009 strongly altered the view of regulation and supervision of financial institutions. Microprudential regulation and supervision – directed at the individual institution – had not prevented the crisis, but had contributed to it or at least made it worse (Hellwig 2009). Therefore, there is now a broad consensus that supervision ought to include a m...
Ryuhei Wakasugi
Ryuhei Wakasugi
Professor at the Graduate School, University of Niigata Prefecture; Senior Research Advisor and Program Director, RIETI
The Chinese government significantly restructured and modernised the economy to meet the WTO standards in December 2001. The openings mandated under China’s WTO accession agreement made its economy the most open of any large developing country, and China has achieved reasonable progress toward meeting its obligations (Branstetter and Lardy 2008). China’s accession to the WTO en...
Dirk Schoenmaker
Dirk Schoenmaker
Dean of the Duisenberg School of Finance and Professor of Finance, Banking and Insurance at the VU University Amsterdam
In an unusual call for regulation, CEOs of major financial institutions urged action on the asset bubble fear earlier this week (World Economic Forum 2015). They ask for a concerted macroprudential approach that addresses potential asset bubbles fuelled by current low interest rates. Without such a concerted approach, finance just moves to the least regulated segments of the fi...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Former New York Gov. George Pataki credits his “conservative policies” for reducing the number of New Yorkers on welfare by 1 million. In fact, the sharp decline was part of a national trend thanks largely to a 1996 federal overhaul of the nation’s welfare system. Under Pataki, New York saw a 76 percent reduction in the average monthly number of welfare recipients — a little...
Alberto Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economy, Harvard University; and Research Fellow, CEPR
Is it mere coincidence that Governments often reduce taxes or increase spending close to elections? Intuitively, many of us think that governments manipulate fiscal policy for electoral reasons (see Drazen 2001). However, the empirical evidence is far from a clear cut. Testing the hypothesis that government’s tweak their fiscal policy in order to lure voters is difficult....
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