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January 30, 2015
Simon Wren-Lewis
Simon Wren-Lewis
Professor, Economics Department and Merton College, Oxford
This column is a lead commentary in the VoxEU Debate "Secular Stagnation" Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin start their introduction to VoxEU’s eBook on secular stagnation (Teulings and Baldwin 2014) with the followin...
Coen Teulings
Coen Teulings
Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge; and CEPR Research Fellow
This column is a lead commentary in the VoxEU Debate "Secular Stagnation" With last week’s decision to start buying Eurozone bonds for €60bn a month, the ECB entered a new phase in its struggle to revive the European ...
Paolo Manasse
Paolo Manasse
Professor of Macroeconomics and International Economic Policy at the University of Bologna
The large victory of the Syriza party in Greece, with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras one or two seat below absolute majority (see graph below) raises the questions: ‘What will happen now in the Eurozone? Is a Grexit scenario possible?’ My take here is that not much is likely to happen, except some tough bargain between the new government and t...
Paolo Manasse
Paolo Manasse
Professor of Macroeconomics and International Economic Policy at the University of Bologna
On 13 January the European Commission issued new  guidelines to the European Parliament, the EU Council, the ECB, the EIB, the Economic and Social Committee, and the Committee of the Regions for "making the best use of the flexibility within the existing rules of the Stability and Growth Pact" (SGP). The report underlines that the existing rules...
Clement Imbert
Clement Imbert
Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Oxford and Nuffield College
Rural and urban labour markets in developing countries are integrated by migration flows, which respond to earnings opportunities at origin and destination. This is the core of the celebrated Harris and Todaro (1970) model, which shows how in equilibrium, migration flows equate expected wages between rural and urban areas. One important implicat...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
In his State of the State address, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie exaggerated some figures and boasted about progress that doesn’t look so impressive when compared with national trends. Christie boasted that New Jersey’s unemployment rate has dropped from 9.7 percent when he took office to 6.4 percent (as of November). But New Jersey was doing slightly better than t...
Philip Bunn
Philip Bunn
Senior Economist in the Structural Economic Analysis Division, Bank of England
May Rostom
May Rostom
Senior Economist in the Financial Stability Strategy & Risk, Bank of England; and PhD student, University College London
A major development in UK household balance sheets in the decade before the Financial Crisis was the build-up of household debt. By 2008, household debt had risen to 160% of income from around 100% a decade earlier (Figure 1), mostly accounted for by increases in mortgage debts. Figure 1. UK household debt to income ratio
Michael Wither
Michael Wither
PhD Candidate in the Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego
Jeffrey Clemens
Jeffrey Clemens
Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego
The minimum wage remains the focus of lively debate in both policy and academic circles.  In the 2014 US elections, four states passed referenda to increase their statutory minimums.  Earlier in the year, President Obama called for increasing the federal minimum from $7.25 to $10.10 per hour.  Among economists, minimum wage research has readily filled volumes (Card and Krueger ...
Marius Zoican
Marius Zoican
PhD candidate in Financial economics, Tinbergen Institute and VU University Amsterdam
The Global Financial Crisis ignited the debate around a common European bank regulator – a banking union for the Eurozone. Ferry and Wolff (2012) look at the fiscal implications of a joint European regulator and advocate a common fiscal backstop mechanism. Colliard (2014) studies the optimal architecture of the single supervision mechanism (SSM) – the supervisory pillar of the ...
Armon Rezai
Armon Rezai
Assistant Professor, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU); Researcher, IIASA; OxCarre External Research Associate, Oxford University
Rick van der Ploeg
Rick Van Der Ploeg
Professor of Economics and Research Director of OxCarre, University of Oxford
The biggest externality on the planet is the failure of markets to price carbon emissions appropriately (Stern 2007). This leads to excessive fossil fuel use which induces global warming and all the economic costs that go with it. Governments should cease the moment of plummeting oil prices and set a price of carbon equal to the optimal social cost of carbon, where the social c...
John Mondragon
John Mondragon
PhD candidate in the Economics department, UC Berkeley
The Great Recession was one of the largest macroeconomic events of the post-war period, but there is still significant disagreement about its causes. Economists such as Mian and Sufi (2014) have argued that the collapse of household net worth was a primary driver of the decline in household demand and employment. However, Chodorow-Reich (2014) and others have emphasised that th...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Two senators on opposite sides of the Keystone XL pipeline debate are selectively spinning the facts to make their case: Democratic Sen. Chris Coons says approval of the Keystone pipeline “means unlocking the Canadian tar sands,” when in fact the oil he refers to is already moving to market in large volume by other means and so can’t be “locked” simply by stopping t...
Magnus Lodefalk
Magnus Lodefalk
Post-doctoral research fellow in economics, Örebro University
The state of manufacturing in OECD countries and its offshoring to emerging economies have been concerns for a least a decade but nowadays the industry has been considered the comeback kid. Policymakers in OECD countries seem to hope for a renewal of manufacturing that will strengthen their industrial base (e.g., European Commission, 2014). As an example, the new prime minister...
Paul De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
Professor of international economics, London School of Economics, and former member of the Belgian parliament.
Yuemei Ji
Yuemei Ji
Economist, LICOS, University of Leuven
Introduction The ECB has been struggling to implement a programme of quantitative easing (QE) to counter the deflationary forces in the Eurozone. What one can say today is that it has not been very successful in stopping deflationary forces as is made vivid in Figure 1. We observe that since 2012 inflation has declined steadily in the Eurozone and became negative at t...
Lutz Kilian
Lutz Kilian
Professor of Economics, University of Michigan; and Research Fellow at CEPR.
Only a few years ago, many observers expected a steadily growing global shortage of crude oil. This shortage did not materialise in part because of the rapidly growing production of shale oil in the US. The production of shale oil (also referred to as tight oil) exploits technological advances in drilling. It involves horizontal drilling and the...
David Coady
David Coady
Deputy Division Chief, Expenditure Policy Division at the Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
Energy subsidies in developed and in developing countries The adverse economic and environmental consequences of energy subsidies are widely recognised (Clements and others 2013a 2014, International Energy Agency 2014, OECD 2009, World Bank 2010). For instance, as recently reported by Clements et al. (2013b), IMF estimates  found that in 2011, post-tax energy subsidie...
Martin Ravallion
Martin Ravallion
Director of the Development Research Group, World Bank
At the launch of the Millennium Goals Report, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that: “The poorest of the world are being left behind. We need to reach out and lift them into our lifeboat.” This view is heard quite often. Yet, other observers tell a very different story. They use aphorisms such as “a rising tide lifts all boats” or they point to evidence that the poor...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
More jobs, higher paychecks, falling fuel prices: Our latest scorecard. Summary Jobs, paychecks, corporate profits and stock prices have all improved since our last report on the Obama statistical record. Some highlights: The economy has now gained nearly five times more jobs under President Barack Obama than it did during the presidency of Georg...
Christoph E. Boehm
Christoph E. Boehm
PhD student, University of Michigan
Aaron Flaaen
Aaron Flaaen
Graduate student in the Economics Department, University of Michigan
Nitya Pandalai Nayar
Nitya Pandalai Nayar
PhD student, University of Michigan
One of the most striking features of the recent economic downturn was the number of countries that were affected. Virtually all advanced economies – and many developing countries – suffered large and simultaneous declines in output during the 2008/2009 recession. Figure 1 plots GDP growth rates of a select group of advanced economies and illustrates the common time-path of econ...
Yves Zenou
Yves Zenou
Professor of Economics at Stockholm University and CEPR Research Fellow
In her article in The New York Times on 11 June 2013, the journalist Monica Davey documents that Chicago has witnessed an important drop in shootings and crime. Chicago killings in 2013 have dipped to a level not seen since the early 1960s – down by 34% from 2012 to 2013. Her explanation of this important decrease in crime is that, in recent mo...
Alex Cukierman
Alex Cukierman
Professor of Economics, Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University and CEPR Research Fellow
The increasingly important status of the renminbi According to the Triennial Central Bank Survey (2013) in 2007, just prior to the eruption of the US subprime crisis and two years before the emergence of the Greek sovereign debt crisis, forex deals with the US dollar on one side of the transaction represented 85.6% of total average daily...
Barry Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley; and formerly Senior Policy Advisor at the International Monetary Fund. CEPR Research Fellow
Communications are an important aspect of monetary policy. Clear communications enhance transparency, which is vital for holding the central bank properly accountable, not just before Parliament but also in the court of public opinion. So it is to be welcomed that the Bank of England has commissioned Kevin Warsh, former governor at the Federal Reserve Board, to review its co...
Patrick Minford
Patrick Minford
Professor of Economics at Cardiff University and Director of the Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics
Macroeconomic models have a poor reputation for empirical accuracy. Macroeconomics has been criticised widely (e.g. Hansen and Heckman 1996) as subjective and untestable on the poor data available; thus macroeconomists build highly abstract dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models based on their own beliefs, either imposing calibrated parameters or estimating them b...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
In accounts from both sides of the aisle, recently-freed Alan Gross has been portrayed as a humanitarian simply trying to bring Internet access to Cuba’s small Jewish community. But there’s more to the story than that shorthand suggests. Although Gross entered Cuba on a handful of occasions on a tourist visa and purported to be a member of a Jewish humanitarian group, Gross ...
Sebastian Edwards
Sebastian Edwards
Henry Ford II Professor of International Economics at the University of California, Los Angeles
Alvaro F. Garcia Marin
Alvaro F. Garcia Marin
PhD Candidate in Economics, Anderson School of Management, UCLA
There is a consensus among development economists that improving the quality of education is an important component of any comprehensive development strategy. What is less clear is how to improve the education quality. Chile is a good example of a developing nation that is trying to make a qualitative change in its educational system. In 2014 the second administration of Pre...
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