www.tipnews.info
November 28, 2014
Kozo Kiyota
Professor of Economics at the Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University and Faculty Fellow, RIETI
With the growing activities of multinationals, one of the major concerns for policymakers in developed countries is the disemployment caused by multinationals, especially in the manufacturing sector.[1] For example, increased competition with foreign countries forces firms to relocate their production sites overseas, which results in disemployment in the home country. In partic...
Shiv Chowla
Economist in the UK Forecast Team of the Monetary Analysis directorate, Bank of England
Lucia Quaglietti
Economist in the International Surveillance Division in the International Directorate, Bank of England
Lukasz Rachel
Senior Economist in the International Directorate, Bank of England
The importance of world shocks for the UK since 2007 The importance of world shocks for the UK economy is well illustrated by the period since 2007. Over that time, world shocks such as the stresses in global financial markets over 2007–09, the steep fall and rise in global commodity prices over 2008–11 and, and since 2010 – the Eurozone crisis – have shaped macroecon...
Jeffrey Frankel
Professor of Economics, Harvard Kennedy School
Valentina Bosetti
Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Bocconi University
Those worried about the future of the earth’s climate are hoping that this December’s climate change convention in Lima, Peru will yield progress toward specific national commitments, looking ahead to an international agreement at the make-or-break Paris meeting to take place in December 2015. The precedent of the Kyoto Protocol negotiated in 1997 is more discouraging than e...
Masayuki Morikawa
Vice President, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)
After the Global Crisis, some European countries reduced their public sector wages to ensure fiscal sustainability. In Japan, after the Great East Japan Earthquake, the wages of the central government officials were cut for two years to finance the reconstruction expenses. Even in normal times, the appropriate level of public sector wages is debated frequently in every country....
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
President Barack Obama tried to rewrite history by claiming that his position had not changed regarding legal authority for executive orders on immigration that he is now considering. During a press conference in Brisbane, Australia, Obama was asked what had changed since he made comments in 2013 that he was “not king” and “not the emperor” in response to questions about sto...
Lionel Fontagné
Professor of economics in the Paris School of Economics, Université Paris I Panthéon Sorbonne
Sébastien Jean
Director, CEPII; Senior Scientist, INRA; Policy Associate at the Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy, University of Nottingham
The TransAtlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations have become a full-blown political issue. This is understandable. The two largest economic entities in the world – already highly integrated – are negotiating a deep integration agreement, going beyond what has been done previously in any agreement except the EU’s Single Market programme. This makes TTIP dif...
Claudio Michelacci
Professor of Economics, EIEF (on loan from CEMFI); and Research Fellow, CEPR
Hernán Ruffo
Assistant Professor of Economics, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
It is well known that workers suffer when they lose their job and experience an unemployment spell – surveys indicate a sharp decrease in happiness, and average consumption falls by around 20% upon job displacement. And much research has studied how to efficiently insure workers against the risk of unemployment. Like any other insurance mechanism, unemployment insurance involve...
Christiane Baumeister
Senior Analyst in the International Economic Analysis Department, Bank of Canada
Lutz Kilian
Professor of Economics, University of Michigan; and Research Fellow at CEPR.
There has been rapid growth in the volume of trading on futures exchanges in recent years. For example, Irwin and Sanders (2012) document that trading volumes in agricultural futures markets have increased by a factor of 3 since 2000. Futures contracts allow market participants to lock in today the price of future transactions covering a wide range of commodities and financial ...
David Dollar
Senior Fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution
Tatjana Kleineberg
PhD Candidate in Economics, Yale University
Aart Kraay
Economist in the Development Research Group, World Bank
Concerns about inequality are at the forefront of many policy debates today. From speeches by US President Barack Obama to the bestselling book Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, it is hard to escape the view that rising inequality poses major challenges in advanced economies. In the developing world too, much has been written about the adverse effe...
Morris Goldstein
Non-resident Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
On October 26th 2014 the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) released the results of the latest EU-wide stress test and the accompanying asset quality review (AQR).1 The 2014 stress test encompasses four key findings: The aggregate capital shortfall for the 123 banks participating in the test is €24.6 billion;
Dalia Marin
Chair in International Economics at the University of Munich
In a famous book, the two economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee from MIT describe how recent advances in artificial intelligence are changing our lives: driverless cars, drones for package delivery, computer programs to diagnose illnesses, intelligent pattern recognition software that replaces lawyers, 3D printing, etc (Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014). They call these de...
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Sen. Jim Inhofe scoffed at the suggestion that China could shift 20 percent of its energy to non-fossil fuels by 2030, in part, he said, because China “has no known reserves of natural gas.” But Inhofe is wrong about that. China ranks 12th in the world with just under 2 percent of the world’s known natural gas reserves. And it intends to use natural gas to meet 10 percent of...
Peter Temin
Elisha Gray II Professor Emeritus of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Macroeconomists have largely failed in explaining and recommending policies since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Today when thinking about fiscal policy they cite Ricardian Equivalence to deny the efficacy of Keynesian analysis (which was abandoned in the turbulent 1970s that signaled the end of rapid growth). They seem unaware that they have revived the views of Montagu ...
Simon J Evenett
Member of the Warwick Commission on the Future of the Multilateral Trading System after Doha. Co-Director of the CEPR Programme in International Trade and Regional Economics.
The Global Crisis provoked a deep drop in trade in 2009. While levels have recovered, the trade-to-GDP ratio has not resumed its decades-long upwards trend (WTO 2013). Based on a massive data collection effort since the St. Petersburg G20 summit last September – in which a further 2,001 trade-related state initiatives have been documented – the 16th Global Trade Alert (GTA) rep...
Stephen Broadberry
Professor of Economic History, Department of Economics, University of Warwick and Economic History Initiative Co-ordinator, CEPR
The role of economic factors How much power do economic factors have in deciding the struggle for global power? To explain the outcome of WWI economic historians stress the increasingly mechanised nature of warfare, waged for years on end by massed forces. They emphasise things like numbers of tanks, guns, ships, airplanes and ammunition, or aggregate indices of munit...
Thorsten Beck
Professor of Economics and Chairman of the European Banking Center at Tilburg University
The ECB has concluded and published the results of a year-long painstaking process to go through the books of the 130 largest and most important banks of the Eurozone, adjusting balance sheets and testing the sensitivity of their capital position to two different scenarios, one of which includes a severe economic downturn. This exercise constitutes the entry point to the Single...
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
An ad from the National Republican Senatorial Committee continues the relentless effort to tie Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu to President Barack Obama, who is not very popular in Louisiana. But the ad stretches the facts on several points. The ad accuses Landrieu of “weakening immigration,” based on her vote to block an amendment aimed at curbing Obama’s use of exec...
Willem Thorbecke
Senior Fellow, Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry, Japan
Before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) China ran large trade surpluses and faced pressure to let the renminbi (RMB) appreciate. Having abandoned the peg to the U.S. dollar in 2005, the RMB has appreciated by 36% on a real effective basis. Until 2009 China ran surpluses in both of its major customs regimes: processing trade and ordinary trade. Processed exports are final goods...
Yong-Suk Lee
SK Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University
Economic sanctions have become a more frequent foreign policy tool in recent decades. North Korea and Iran have been sanctioned for their nuclear pursuit, Syria for mass civilian killings, and recently Russia for annexing Crimea. However, these sanctions do not seem to be effective in achieving their intended goals. Hufbauer et al. (2009) document 174 sanction cases and find th...
Ian Preston
Professor of Economics, University College London; Deputy Research Director, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration
Much attention of researchers and policy-makers has been directed at the effects of immigration on the wages and employment of natives in the host country (for example, Friedberg and Hunt 1995; Manacorda et al 2012; Dustmann et al 2013). But most empirical studies have failed to find any convincing evidence of substantial negative impact. Data on social attitudes show that the ...
Charles A.E. Goodhart
Emeritus Professor in the Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics
Our history is our database. When seeking to peer dimly into the future, our normal response is to examine what happened in (similar) past episodes and then to extrapolate those outcomes into the future. This assumption, that the future will mimic the past, is hard-wired into almost all our forecasting exercises, from the most simple to the econometrically and technically most ...
Mickey Levy
Chief Economist, Blenheim Capital Management
How often have we heard the phrase “If the Fed hikes rates too early, the economic recovery will be derailed”?  It is ingrained in the Fed’s mindset and statements like it appear frequently in the media.  Yet the history of Fed rate hikes during previous economic expansions suggests that such fears are unwarranted, and the current 5½-year-old expansion is on sound footing and w...
Politics
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
With the midterm elections now just days away, many campaigns and outside groups are making their final appeals. And, as has been the case all election season, some of the claims miss the mark. An ad from Florida Rep. Alan Grayson grossly overstates the sweep of his efforts to ensure that American flags be made in the U.S.A. “Now, look at all these jobs,” Grayson bo...
Stephan Seiler
Assistant Professor of Marketing at Stanford Graduate School of Business
Aleksi Aaltonen
Assistant Professor of Information Systems, Warwick Business School
Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and Wikipedia are among the world’s most popular websites – and all of them are based on user-generated content. While some platforms of this kind are primarily used to share individually produced content, others are based on a more direct interaction between users in the production of content. Wikipedia is the leading example of this type of join...
Lawrence Summers
Professor at Harvard University
Just seven years ago all seemed well in the field of macroeconomics. The phrase 'great moderation' captured the reality that business cycle volatility seemed way down from levels of the first part of the post war period. A broad methodological consensus supported the use of DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models to understand macroeconomic fluctuations and to eval...
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