www.tipnews.info
April 18, 2014
Richard Portes
Professor of Economics at London Business School and President of CEPR
Anne-Laure Delatte
Associate Professor of Economics, Rouen Business School
Julien Fouquau
Associate Professor, Neoma Business School and Fellow researcher, Dauphine University
The job of government bond analysts has been tough since the Eurozone crisis started. They’ve had to tell their clients a story behind every single bond spread hike since the fall of 2009. The list includes concerns over peripheral sovereigns’ public finances, deterioration of the fundamentals, financial sector credit risk, and European institutional coordination failures. I...
Shang-Jin Wei
Professor of Finance and Economics, and of Chinese Business and Economy, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University
Zhi Wang
Senior international economist at Research Division, Office of Economics, U.S. International Trade Commission
In a survey of work on quantifying global production sharing in recent years, Antràs (2013: 6) calls the value-added exports to gross export ratio, or the VAX ratio – as proposed by Johnson and Noguera (2012) – “the state of the [art]” and “an appealing inverse measure of the importance of vertical specialization in […] world production”. We will suggest that the VAX ratio conc...
Benedict Clements
Division Chief, Expenditure Policy Division of the Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
David Coady
Deputy Division Chief, Expenditure Policy Division at the Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
Ruud De Mooij
Deputy Division Chief for the Tax Policy Division of IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department
Sanjeev Gupta
Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
The causes and consequences of rising inequality have attracted considerable attention, including the recent study by Thomas Piketty (2014). This has also touched off a lively debate on the appropriate policy response to rising disparities in income and wealth (Mankiw 2013, Berg, Ostry, and Tsangarides 2014). But this is just one of the many challenges facing ministers of finan...
Prakash Loungani
Senior resource manager and advisor in the IMF's Research Department
Hites Ahir
Senior research officer, IMF
Since the onset of the Great Recession, much of the world has been in a state of economic winter: nearly 50 countries were in recession in 2009 and 15 countries slipped into recession in 2012. After weak global growth in 2013, economic forecasters are predicting a rosier outlook this year and next. Can these forecasts be trusted? Or are forecasters simply intoning – like Chaunc...
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Since 2009, it has been a campaign tradition: Election cycles filled with ads about the Affordable Care Act — and overwhelmingly ads attacking the law and those who support it. The 2014 midterm election could be even more intense, with an onslaught of advertising that rivals several years’ worth of anti-ACA spending. Kantar Media Intelligence’s Campaign Media Analysis Group,...
Peter Koudijs
Assistant Professor of Finance, Stanford Graduate School of Business
Hans-Joachim Voth
Chair of Development and Emerging Markets at the Economics Department, Zurich University and CEPR Research Fellow
To paraphrase Larry Summers, some people are scared – just look around. The crisis of 2007–08 took a toll on a lot of people, investors included. What seemed to be a new age of steady, moderately high growth and stable equity returns suddenly turned into the biggest economic crisis since the 1930s: Savers saw the value of their nesteggs plummet; Unemploym...
Raphael Auer
Deputy Head, International Trade and Capital Flows, Swiss National Bank and LISD Fellow, Princeton University
Current-account (CA) rebalancing is a necessary step for the Southern EZ countries to overcome their debt and external balance of payments crises.1 Figure 1 documents the impressive speed and magnitude of the southern EZ’s CA rebalancing. The green solid line plots the evolution of the rolling 12-month CA balance of these four economies.2 The figure also d...
Martin Brown
Professor of Banking, University of St. Gallen
Stefan Trautmann
Professor of Behavioral Finance, Heidelberg University; Associate Professor of Economics, Tilburg University
Razvan Vlahu
Economist, Economics and Research Division, De Nederlandsche Bank
Financial contagion – the situation in which liquidity or insolvency risk is transmitted from one financial institution to another – is viewed by policymakers and academics as a key source of systemic risk in the banking sector. In particular, the events in the 2007–2009 Global Crisis have turned the attention of policymakers towards the potential contagion of liquidity withdra...
Nauro F Campos
Professor of Economics and Finance at Brunel University and CEPR Research Affiliate
Fabrizio Coricelli
Professor at Université Paris 1, Panthéon-Sorbonne and CEPR Research Fellow
Luigi Moretti
Senior Research Fellow, Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova
The process of economic integration in Europe is more than half a century old. WWII provided impetus and, even if from the outset it was driven much by politics, considerations about economic benefits have always been paramount (Martin et al. 2012.) Integration has since deepened and broadened, with slowdowns but without major reversals. In the wake of the Great Rec...
Paolo Angelini
Director of Staff, Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Department, Banca d'Italia
Giuseppe Grande
Deputy Manager in the Department for Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at Banca d'Italia
Sovereign debtors and their national banking systems are closely linked through a range of direct and indirect channels. These include banks’ claims on sovereigns, semi-automatic links between sovereign and bank credit ratings, public backstops, collateral in banks’ operations, and the effects of fiscal distress on the overall economy – and thus the quality of bank loans (CGFS ...
Leandro Prados De La Escosura
Professor of Economic History, Universidad Carlos III, Madrid and CEPR Research Fellow
How has freedom evolved over time? A distinction has been made between ‘negative’ freedom – a lack of interference or coercion by others (freedom from) – and ‘positive’ freedom, the guarantee of access to markets that allow people to control their own existence (freedom to) (Berlin 1958). An example of negative freedom is economic liberty. A country is economically free to the ...
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
A slate of new ads from the 60 Plus Association evoke a well-worn conservative punching bag — “Obamacare” — to attack seven senators for supporting a lesser-known plan to overhaul the housing finance market. But the group stretches the analogy to absurd lengths to make the case that a Senate proposal amounts to a “takeover of the mortgage industry.” In fact, the bipartisan l...
Nauro F Campos
Professor of Economics and Finance at Brunel University and CEPR Research Affiliate
Fabrizio Coricelli
Professor at Université Paris 1, Panthéon-Sorbonne and CEPR Research Fellow
Luigi Moretti
Senior Research Fellow, Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova
EU members are all alike; every EU candidate is a candidate in its own way. This is, of course, our attempt at rephrasing Anna Karenina’s opener (“Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way”). Tolstoy had marriage in mind while Diamond (1997) had domesticated animals. For pets and marriages, success happens not because of one particular, positi...
Joshua Aizenman
Professor of Economics, University of California Santa Cruz and Research Associate, the NBER
Mahir Binici
Economist, Central Bank of Turkey
Michael M Hutchison
Professor of Economics, University of California Santa Cruz
The quantitative easing (QE) policies of the US Federal Reserve in the years following the crisis of 2008–2009 included monthly securities purchases of long-term Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities totalling $85 billion in 2013. The cumulative outcome of these policies has been an unprecedented increase of the monetary base, mitigating the deflationary pressure of the...
Brian Kovak
Assistant Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University; Faculty Research Fellow, NBER
David Byrne
Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Ryan Michaels
Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Rochester
China’s integration into world markets over the past 35 years has been dramatic both in pace and scope. An important aspect of this growth has been China’s expansion into relatively sophisticated product categories (Rodrik 2006, Schott 2008). In such cases one wonders whether the lower prices offered by Chinese firms reflect true discounts, or rather lower product quality (Scho...
Beatrice Weder Di Mauro
Professor of Economics at the University of Mainz and CEPR Research Fellow
Vesa Vihriala
Managing Director of the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA)
High levels of public debt have been at the centre of the euro crisis. Perceived unsustainability of individual member states’ public debt resulted in high interest rates and the threat of exclusion from the bond market. This prompted emergency financial assistance, the establishment of institutions for assistance, and ultimately the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) promise...
Jaime De Melo
Senior Fellow, FERDI; Professor, University of Geneva; CEPR Research Fellow
Mariana Vijil
Research Associate, Foundation for International Development Study and Research
The decade-long negotiations on reducing barriers to trade in environmental goods and environmental services at the WTO failed to make any progress (Frankel 2013, Balineau and Melo 2013). Against this stalemate at the WTO, in September 2012, 20 APEC members submitted a list of 54 products for which they would lower applied tariff rates to 5% or less by the end of 2015. And on 2...
Emanuele Baldacci
Head of Department for Integration, Quality, Research and Production Networks Development (DIQR) of Istat
Sanjeev Gupta
Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
Carlos Mulas-Granados
Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF and Professor of Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the discussion of the effects of fiscal adjustment on economic growth has intensified. While some scholars have focused on the characteristics of the fiscal consolidation needed to bring public debt down from historically high levels, others have examined the effects of alternative strategies on economic performance. The...
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Q: Does the Affordable Care Act require Medicare beneficiaries over age 75 to be admitted to the hospital by their primary care physician? A. No. There is no such requirement in the law.   FULL QUESTION Can this possibly be true? Subject: MEDICARE AT AGE 76 Hope all of you who count of Medicare to take care of you into your golden years have a bac...
Marco Buti
Director General of EMU at the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Maria Demertzis
DG Ecfin, European Commission
João Nogueira Martins
DG Ecfin, European Commission
As argued in an earlier commentary, the financial crisis exposed important economic inconsistencies in the way that EMU operated.1 Although progress has been made, the reality is that more needs to be done. A number of countries still need to consolidate their public finances further, and also implement structural reforms to promote growth and sustain satisfactory we...
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