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June 20, 2013
Paolo Manasse
Professor of Macroeconomics and International Economic Policy at the University of Bologna
Italy is currently facing its worst recession in recent history, having lost about 8.5% of GDP between 2007 and 2013. The current situation is, to a large extent, the result of the Eurozone crisis and of the tough fiscal-austerity measures introduced across Europe, and particularly in Italy. Since 2007, the Italian primary balance improved by 3.3 points of potential GDP accordi...
Andrew J Oswald
Professor of Economics, Warwick University
Unemployment matters. It is a major source of unhappiness, mental ill-health, and lost income. Yet after a century of economic research the determinants of unemployment are still imperfectly understood, and jobless levels in the industrialised nations are currently around 10%, with some over 20%.
If you search for unemployment in the Web of Science, within the Social Scien...
Ayako Saiki
Economist, De Nederlandsche Bank
Abenomics is all the rage.
Japan grew at 3.5% in the first quarter;
The stock market is up; and
Sentiments, consumption, and exports are all picking up even if recent stock-market performance has created some uncertainties.
But negative inflation is still present.
March 2013 CPI inflation was -0.9% (year on year), dow...
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
The House Oversight Committee chairman and the ranking Democrat are overreaching in recent statements about the committees investigation of the IRS. Chairman Darrell Issa has yet to produce evidence of his theory that the Obama administration in Washington directly
ordered the agency to target conservative groups seeking tax-exempt status. But Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummin...
Edda Zoli
Senior Economist in the European Department, International Monetary Fund
Volatility in the Italian sovereign-debt market intensified in the summer of 2011, with ten-year government bond spreads climbing from below 200 basis points in June to over 500 at end-2011 and falling again in July 2012. In January of this year, they fell further to below 300 basis points. The sovereign turmoil ignited a vicious cycle of rising funding costs for banks, increas...
Daniel Gros
Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels
The purpose of the proposed banking union is to de-link banks from their sovereigns.
Putting the ECB in charge of supervision and creating a common resolution mechanism should help.
But this is not enough.
European banks hold too much government debt of their own governments to really sever the sovereign-bank link.
Until the lin...
Geoffrey Heal
Paul Garrett Professor of Public Policy and Corporate Responsibility and Professor of Finance and Economics, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University
Antony Millner
Postdoctoral Research Fellow at University of California, Berkeley
Uncertainty is intrinsic in climate change economics. We know that increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are causing shifts in the climate, but not precisely how large these shifts will be, nor when and where they will occur. Neither do we understand fully the social and economic consequences of these changes, or the options that will be available for coping with ...
Ganeshan Wignaraja
Director of Research of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
Richard Baldwin
Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute, Geneva; CEPR Policy Director, and VoxEU.org Editor-in-Chief
Masahiro Kawai
Dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute
The 1995 creation of the WTO as an institutional extension of the GATT - held out the promise of an effective, rules-based world trading system where all countries were treated alike. In addition to establishing a global judiciary for trade disputes, the WTO was expected to provide a forum for trade negotiations and other related functions. Progress on the judiciary side has ...
James Fenske
University Lecturer in Economic History in the Department of Economics, University of Oxford
Namrata Kala
PhD candidate, Yale University
The slave trade is important if we want to understand Africas modern development. Higher participation in the trade is associated with worse modern economic outcomes, including lower GDP per capita, lower trust, and greater ethnic fractionalisation (Nunn 2008; Nunn and Wantchekon 2011; Whatley and Gillezeau 2011). Despite the numerous studies linking modern outcomes to partici...
Sheila Bair
Chair of the Systemic Risk Council
I was honoured when the IMF asked me to moderate the Financial Regulation panel at this years Rethinking Macro II conference. And while naturally, I delivered one of the more enlightening and thought-provoking policy discussions of the conference, I did fail in my duties as moderator to make sure my panellists covered all the excellent questions our sponsors submitted to us. O...
Politics
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
President Obama incorrectly claims that the Senate has taken three times longer to confirm his court nominees than those of his predecessor, George W. Bush.
The president made the claim recently as he announced that he would nominate th...
Wyplosz Charles
Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva; Director of the International Centre for Money and Banking Studies.
Right now, most central banks in developed countries are deeply focused on finding ways to support a lackluster economic recovery from the 2009s Great Recession. In some cases, these banks are struggling to exit from a double dip. With interest rates at the zero lower bound, these efforts are taking the form of a massive expansion of liquidity. Behind this unprecedented effort...
Peter Egger
Professor of Applied Economics, ETH-Zürich; Research Fellow, CEPR
Georg Wamser
Professor of Economics at the University of Tuebingen
The world trade system as governed by the WTO works on two fundamental principles, i.e. most-favoured nation treatment and national treatment.
The former means that no WTO member's trade flows shall be treated worse (i.e. taxed) at the border than those of the most-favoured nation. The latter means that after having crossed the border goods shall be treated as if they we...
Thorsten Beck
Professor of Economics and Chairman of the European Banking Center at Tilburg University
The World Bank Groups Doing Business data collection and ranking exercise is again in the headlines, allegedly following Chinas protest against it being ranked 91. Using the occasion of the 10th anniversary of Doing Business, the World Banks new president has formed a commission in October 2012 to assess impact, methodology and effectiveness of the Doing Business project.
Simon J Evenett
Member of the Warwick Commission on the Future of the Multilateral Trading System after Doha. Co-Director of the CEPR Programme in International Trade and Regional Economics.
Following a complaint lodged on 25 July 2012 by EU Pro Sun, an association representing around 20 EU-based producers of solar panels and components, the European Commission initiated an investigation into potential Chinese dumping of solar panels on 6 September 2012 (European Commission 2012). Nine months later, on 6 June 2013, the Commission is expected to impose prov...
Bernard Hoekman
Director of the Global Economics Program, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute; CEPR
Ben Shepherd
Principal of Developing Trade Consultants Ltd.
Analyses continue to accumulate that demonstrate that the global gains from trade facilitation understood as measures that reduce the overall costs of the international movement of goods are potentially very large (Hufbauer et al 2012). For example, the World Economic Forum (2013) uses available data on trade-facilitation performance in a computable general-equilibrium mode...
Jayant Menon
Lead Economist at the Office for Regional Economic Integration, Asian Development Bank
ASEAN is divided. So how many ASEANs are there? Most separate the newer, less developed members (such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam; known as CLMV) from the older ones (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore; known as ASEAN6). As high-income countries, some would even put Singapore and Brunei in a separate, third category. Although th...
Politics
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Conservative critics of the Affordable Care Act are misrepresenting a study examining the health benefits of expanding Medicaid to cover more low-income people.
In Arizona, a group calling itself American Commitment has launched a series of 30-second Web ads claiming that a recent study shows that Medicaid doesnt even improve physical health. But thats a distortion. The ...
Sajjad Faraji Dizaji
PhD Candidate in Economics at Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran
Peter A.G. Van Bergeijk
Professor of international economics and macroeconomics at the Institute of Social Studies (Erasmus University) and deputy director of CERES
Sanctions against Iran are closely monitored. In particular, academics and policymakers focus on the impact on Iranian exports and the potential for trade diversion (see Haidar 2013). But even if the sanctions bite, the question is whether these sanctions will change the political course of Iran. If one wants to evaluate the potential utility of economic sanctions against Iran ...
Olivier Blanchard
Chief economist, IMF, on leave from MIT
Paolo Mauro
Division Chief, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Deputy Chief, Financial Studies Division, IMF.
The global economic crisis has kept forcing policymakers and academics to rethink macroeconomic policy. First was the Lehman crisis, which showed how much they had underestimated the dangers posed by the financial system, and the limits of monetary policy. Then it was the euro crisis, which forced them to rethink the workings of currency unions, and fiscal policy. And, througho...
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