www.tipnews.info
January 18, 2017
Stephen Cecchetti
Stephen Cecchetti
Professor of International Economics at the Brandeis International Business School
“We very, very much did not want to make the loan.” Ben Bernanke testimony (10 October 2014) regarding the Federal Reserve’s emergency provision of credit to AIG in September, 2008. More than six years after the Dodd-Frank Act passed in July 2010, the controversy over how to end ‘too big to fail’ (TBTF) remains a key focus of financial reform. Indeed, TBTF – which ...
Guido Alfani
Guido Alfani
Associate Professor of Economic History, Bocconi University
In the renewed interest in long-term trends in economic inequality, particular attention has been paid to the share of income or wealth earned or owned by the top 1%, 5%, or 10%. The share of the richest is both interesting on its own terms (it shows us how ‘rich’ better-off people actually were), and as an indicator of the overall trends in economic inequality. There is con...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
During his confirmation hearing for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson said “our ability to predict” the effect of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere “is very limited.” That’s not entirely accurate. While “very limited” is subjective, scientists have differing degrees of confidence when attributing different phenomena to increased atmospheric carbon dio...
Ian Bright
Ian Bright
Senior economist, ING, London and Amsterdam
Since the Global Crisis, the ECB, like other central banks around the world, has used unconventional policies that rely on factors other than changes in interest rates to stimulate growth and meet its inflation target. Questioning the effectiveness of monetary policy These unconventional policies have included quantitative easing (QE) and negative interest rate polic...
Jason Furman
Jason Furman
Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers
The US collects more than $33 billion a year – or roughly 0.2% of GDP – in tariffs, which are taxes on US imports.  A common argument in favour of trade protectionism supposes that increasing tariffs imposes a very small cost on many people to protect more concentrated populations within particular industries.  Many overlook the fact that like any tax, the tariff burden does no...
Morten Ravn
Morten Ravn
Professor of Economics at University College London and CEPR Research Fellow
In a thought-provoking speech, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently expressed her discontent with macroeconomic research, and the guidance it provides in addressing today’s key policy challenges (Yellen 2016):  “…the events of the past few years have revealed limits in economists' understanding of the economy and suggest several important questions I hope the prof...
Kristopher S. Gerardi
Kristopher S. Gerardi
Financial Economist and Policy Adviser, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Why do homeowners default on their mortgage? Goodman et al. (2010) suggest two possible forces. One is a lack of liquidity – homeowners no longer have the ability to pay their mortgage because they have suffered a significant negative income or expenditure shock. The other is negative equity, often referred to as 'strategic default'. In this case homeowners ha...
Maria Cubel
Maria Cubel
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Barcelona
Despite heated academic debates and some bold policy reforms, the gender wage gap and the under-representation of women in top jobs persist. This persistence challenges explanations based on pure gender differences in human capital or preferences, as well as explanations based on statistical discrimination on the part of employers (Blau and Kahn 2016). More recent explanatio...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi made some misleading claims this week on the Affordable Care Act: Pelosi exaggerated in saying “75 percent of the American people … get their health benefits through their workplace.” Around 50 percent of the total population has employer-sponsored insurance. Pelosi also claimed Republicans would use $800 billion in Me...
Jonathan Portes
Jonathan Portes
Prinicipal Research Fellow, National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Two issues dominated the UK’s Brexit referendum debate: immigration and the economy.  During the campaign, there was extensive discussion of the economic impact of Brexit on the UK economy. Detailed projections, under different scenarios for the post-Brexit UK-EU relationship, were produced by HM Treasury (2016), the IMF (2016) and OECD (2016), among others. However, none of...
Filipa S
Filipa Sá
Senior Lecturer, King's College London
Average house prices in England and Wales have almost tripled in the last 15 years, from just over £70,000 in 1999 to about £215,000 in 2014. Apart from a reduction in 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis, house prices increased every year during this period. Behind this average lies considerable regional variation, with average prices in the prime London area of ...
Donato Masciandaro
Donato Masciandaro
Professor of Economics, and Chair in Economics of Financial Regulation, Bocconi University
“Too little, too late”, or “wait and see” are phrases that the media frequently use when observing the tendency for central banks to postpone and/or delay interest rate decisions. The recent behaviour of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) is paradigmatic. In the aftermath of the severest recession since WWII, the Fed faces extraordinary challenges in designing and implementing...
Toshihiro Okubo
Toshihiro Okubo
Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Keio University
Geographical disparity across regions, especially the core-periphery gap, has become an important policy issue in many countries. Firms fragment various functions and locate them in different regions, as examined by Duranton and Puga (2005). Production activities are often divided within a firm across multiple plants in remote locations to save production and/or transport costs...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
In a radio interview with WHYY’s NewsWorks in Philadelphia, FactCheck.org Director Eugene Kiely talks about the recent announcement that FactCheck.org will work with Facebook to combat fake news on the popular social media site. In response to an increase in the circulation of fake news on its site, Facebook enlisted five fact-checking organizations to review stories that ar...
Richard Baldwin
Richard Baldwin
Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute, Geneva; CEPR Policy Director, and VoxEU.org Editor-in-Chief
Following our usual tradition, VoxEU.org takes a break between Christmas and the New Year  – our final column of 2016 will be on Saturday 24 December and our first column of 2017 will appear on Monday 2 January. Meanwhile, for those of you looking for reading material over the Christmas break, here is a short list of very notable columns on issues that played havoc with us a...
Rick van der Ploeg
Rick Van Der Ploeg
Professor of Economics and Research Director of OxCarre, University of Oxford
Following oil, gas or mineral bonanzas economies often do not fare well. The reasons for this so-called ‘resource curse’ are well known. First, an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a decline in non-resource exports both depress growth, since the traded sectors are the engines of growth, not the non-traded sectors – this effect is referred to as 'Dutch disease'. Second,...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
There has been a lot of talk lately about us living in a post-truth world — so much so that Oxford Dictionaries selected “post-truth” as its international word of the year for 2016. Post-truth, adj., relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and per...
John Muellbauer
John Muellbauer
Official Fellow, Nuffield College; Professor of Economics, Oxford University; and Fellow, Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford Martin School
The New Keynesian DSGE models that dominated the macroeconomic profession and central bank thinking for the last two decades were based on several principles. The first was formal derivation from micro-foundations, assuming optimising behaviour of consumers and firms with rational or ‘model-consistent’ expectations of future conditions.  For such derivation to result in a tract...
J. Bradford Jensen
J. Bradford Jensen
Professor of Economics and International Business at the McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University
Modern international trade increasingly takes place in complex cross-border global value chains (Johnson and Noguera 2012, Amador and di Mauro 2015).  Even as global production has grown more complex, events of the last year have raised questions about the future growth of international trade. In Europe, the Brexit vote threatens to roll back decades of closer regional integrat...
Kristin Forbes
Kristin Forbes
Associate Professor of Economics, MIT Sloan School of Management; former Member of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers.
The results of the UK’s EU referendum and the US presidential election came as a surprise to most analysts and reflect fundamental shifts in the political landscape. With a series of important elections and votes in the EU going forward, the surprises may well continue. A key factor behind this shifting political landscape is increased concern about the rapid pace of globalisat...
Joo Amador
João Amador
Head of the Fiscal Policies and Structural Studies Division at the Economics and Research Department, Banco de Portugal;
The international fragmentation of production led to the emergence of Global Value Chains (GVCs), which have contributed to the structural interdependence of the world economy (Baldwin 2013). GVCs are mostly about combining value added from different sources, and their impacts span many dimensions affecting international trade and investment, the labour market and productivity....
Enrico Perotti
Enrico Perotti
Professor of International Finance, University of Amsterdam and CEPR Research Fellow
Since the Global Crisis, per-capita income in developed countries has stagnated. Europe took until 2015 to recover to the 2008 level of output. Unprecedented monetary expansion has failed to counter this stagnation. Even international trade, the ultimate engine of growth, is falling. The debate on what should be done has been largely conjunctural. Most macroeconomists interp...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Scott Pruitt, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to head the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, has made some questionable claims related to global warming, fracking and the Clean Power Plan. A self-described “leading advocate against the EPA’s activist agenda,” Pruitt, Oklahoma’s attorney general since 2011, has repeatedly sued the agency and other government entitie...
Jon Danielsson
Jon Danielsson
Director of the Systemic Risk Centre at the London School of Economics
The purpose of macroprudential policies, or ‘macropru’, is to prevent excessive risk accumulating in the financial system, to contain financial crises when they happen, and to ensure the financial system contributes to economic growth. There are many directions the authorities can take when implementing macropru (e.g. Cerutti et al. 2016). Most are passive, focusing on crisi...
Pushkar Maitra
Pushkar Maitra
Professor of Economics, Monash University
For farmers in many developing countries, diversification into high-value cash crops has been an important path out of poverty. Travelling this path is often made harder by lack of access to credit. Poor farmers lack assets that could be used as collateral, and so there is a lack of effective means to ensure that loans are repaid. Formal financial institutions are, therefore, o...
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