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November 22, 2014
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
President Barack Obama tried to rewrite history by claiming that his position had not changed regarding legal authority for executive orders on immigration that he is now considering. During a press conference in Brisbane, Australia, Obama was asked what had changed since he made comments in 2013 that he was “not king” and “not the emperor” in response to questions about sto...
Lionel Fontagné
Professor of economics in the Paris School of Economics, Université Paris I Panthéon Sorbonne
Sébastien Jean
Director, CEPII; Senior Scientist, INRA; Policy Associate at the Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy, University of Nottingham
The TransAtlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations have become a full-blown political issue. This is understandable. The two largest economic entities in the world – already highly integrated – are negotiating a deep integration agreement, going beyond what has been done previously in any agreement except the EU’s Single Market programme. This makes TTIP dif...
Claudio Michelacci
Professor of Economics, EIEF (on loan from CEMFI); and Research Fellow, CEPR
Hernán Ruffo
Assistant Professor of Economics, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
It is well known that workers suffer when they lose their job and experience an unemployment spell – surveys indicate a sharp decrease in happiness, and average consumption falls by around 20% upon job displacement. And much research has studied how to efficiently insure workers against the risk of unemployment. Like any other insurance mechanism, unemployment insurance involve...
Christiane Baumeister
Senior Analyst in the International Economic Analysis Department, Bank of Canada
Lutz Kilian
Professor of Economics, University of Michigan; and Research Fellow at CEPR.
There has been rapid growth in the volume of trading on futures exchanges in recent years. For example, Irwin and Sanders (2012) document that trading volumes in agricultural futures markets have increased by a factor of 3 since 2000. Futures contracts allow market participants to lock in today the price of future transactions covering a wide range of commodities and financial ...
David Dollar
Senior Fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution
Tatjana Kleineberg
PhD Candidate in Economics, Yale University
Aart Kraay
Economist in the Development Research Group, World Bank
Concerns about inequality are at the forefront of many policy debates today. From speeches by US President Barack Obama to the bestselling book Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, it is hard to escape the view that rising inequality poses major challenges in advanced economies. In the developing world too, much has been written about the adverse effe...
Morris Goldstein
Non-resident Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
On October 26th 2014 the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) released the results of the latest EU-wide stress test and the accompanying asset quality review (AQR).1 The 2014 stress test encompasses four key findings: The aggregate capital shortfall for the 123 banks participating in the test is €24.6 billion;
Dalia Marin
Chair in International Economics at the University of Munich
In a famous book, the two economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee from MIT describe how recent advances in artificial intelligence are changing our lives: driverless cars, drones for package delivery, computer programs to diagnose illnesses, intelligent pattern recognition software that replaces lawyers, 3D printing, etc (Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014). They call these de...
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Sen. Jim Inhofe scoffed at the suggestion that China could shift 20 percent of its energy to non-fossil fuels by 2030, in part, he said, because China “has no known reserves of natural gas.” But Inhofe is wrong about that. China ranks 12th in the world with just under 2 percent of the world’s known natural gas reserves. And it intends to use natural gas to meet 10 percent of...
Peter Temin
Elisha Gray II Professor Emeritus of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Macroeconomists have largely failed in explaining and recommending policies since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Today when thinking about fiscal policy they cite Ricardian Equivalence to deny the efficacy of Keynesian analysis (which was abandoned in the turbulent 1970s that signaled the end of rapid growth). They seem unaware that they have revived the views of Montagu ...
Simon J Evenett
Member of the Warwick Commission on the Future of the Multilateral Trading System after Doha. Co-Director of the CEPR Programme in International Trade and Regional Economics.
The Global Crisis provoked a deep drop in trade in 2009. While levels have recovered, the trade-to-GDP ratio has not resumed its decades-long upwards trend (WTO 2013). Based on a massive data collection effort since the St. Petersburg G20 summit last September – in which a further 2,001 trade-related state initiatives have been documented – the 16th Global Trade Alert (GTA) rep...
Stephen Broadberry
Professor of Economic History, Department of Economics, University of Warwick and Economic History Initiative Co-ordinator, CEPR
The role of economic factors How much power do economic factors have in deciding the struggle for global power? To explain the outcome of WWI economic historians stress the increasingly mechanised nature of warfare, waged for years on end by massed forces. They emphasise things like numbers of tanks, guns, ships, airplanes and ammunition, or aggregate indices of munit...
Thorsten Beck
Professor of Economics and Chairman of the European Banking Center at Tilburg University
The ECB has concluded and published the results of a year-long painstaking process to go through the books of the 130 largest and most important banks of the Eurozone, adjusting balance sheets and testing the sensitivity of their capital position to two different scenarios, one of which includes a severe economic downturn. This exercise constitutes the entry point to the Single...
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
An ad from the National Republican Senatorial Committee continues the relentless effort to tie Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu to President Barack Obama, who is not very popular in Louisiana. But the ad stretches the facts on several points. The ad accuses Landrieu of “weakening immigration,” based on her vote to block an amendment aimed at curbing Obama’s use of exec...
Willem Thorbecke
Senior Fellow, Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry, Japan
Before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) China ran large trade surpluses and faced pressure to let the renminbi (RMB) appreciate. Having abandoned the peg to the U.S. dollar in 2005, the RMB has appreciated by 36% on a real effective basis. Until 2009 China ran surpluses in both of its major customs regimes: processing trade and ordinary trade. Processed exports are final goods...
Yong-Suk Lee
SK Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University
Economic sanctions have become a more frequent foreign policy tool in recent decades. North Korea and Iran have been sanctioned for their nuclear pursuit, Syria for mass civilian killings, and recently Russia for annexing Crimea. However, these sanctions do not seem to be effective in achieving their intended goals. Hufbauer et al. (2009) document 174 sanction cases and find th...
Ian Preston
Professor of Economics, University College London; Deputy Research Director, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration
Much attention of researchers and policy-makers has been directed at the effects of immigration on the wages and employment of natives in the host country (for example, Friedberg and Hunt 1995; Manacorda et al 2012; Dustmann et al 2013). But most empirical studies have failed to find any convincing evidence of substantial negative impact. Data on social attitudes show that the ...
Charles A.E. Goodhart
Emeritus Professor in the Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics
Our history is our database. When seeking to peer dimly into the future, our normal response is to examine what happened in (similar) past episodes and then to extrapolate those outcomes into the future. This assumption, that the future will mimic the past, is hard-wired into almost all our forecasting exercises, from the most simple to the econometrically and technically most ...
Mickey Levy
Chief Economist, Blenheim Capital Management
How often have we heard the phrase “If the Fed hikes rates too early, the economic recovery will be derailed”?  It is ingrained in the Fed’s mindset and statements like it appear frequently in the media.  Yet the history of Fed rate hikes during previous economic expansions suggests that such fears are unwarranted, and the current 5½-year-old expansion is on sound footing and w...
Politics
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
With the midterm elections now just days away, many campaigns and outside groups are making their final appeals. And, as has been the case all election season, some of the claims miss the mark. An ad from Florida Rep. Alan Grayson grossly overstates the sweep of his efforts to ensure that American flags be made in the U.S.A. “Now, look at all these jobs,” Grayson bo...
Stephan Seiler
Assistant Professor of Marketing at Stanford Graduate School of Business
Aleksi Aaltonen
Assistant Professor of Information Systems, Warwick Business School
Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and Wikipedia are among the world’s most popular websites – and all of them are based on user-generated content. While some platforms of this kind are primarily used to share individually produced content, others are based on a more direct interaction between users in the production of content. Wikipedia is the leading example of this type of join...
Lawrence Summers
Professor at Harvard University
Just seven years ago all seemed well in the field of macroeconomics. The phrase 'great moderation' captured the reality that business cycle volatility seemed way down from levels of the first part of the post war period. A broad methodological consensus supported the use of DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models to understand macroeconomic fluctuations and to eval...
Viral Acharya
Professor of Finance, Stern School of Business, New York University and Director of the CEPR Financial Economics Programme
Sascha Steffen
Assistant Professor of Finance, University of Mannheim
Motivation The ECB has finalised its assessment of the largest banks in the Eurozone before it commences their regulatory oversight in November 2014. It has now disclosed its own assessment about the solvency of the banking sector (ECB 2014). In an earlier piece (Acharya and Steffen 2014), we have estimated capital shortfalls of European banks that are going to be ...
Emmanuel Saez
Professor of Economics and Director, Center for Equitable Growth, University of California, Berkeley
Gabriel Zucman
Assistant professor of economics, London School of Economics
There is no dispute that income inequality has been on the rise in the US for the past four decades. The share of total income earned by the top 1% of families was less than 10% in the late 1970s, but now exceeds 20% as of the end of 2012 (Piketty and Saez 2003). A large portion of this increase is due to an upsurge in the labour incomes earned by senior company executives and ...
David F. Hendry
Director, Program in Economic Modeling, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School; Professor of Economics and Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford University
Life on Earth has survived great changes – there are many species alive today, some of which thrived in global temperatures much higher than now, so many stable levels of climate can support abundant life. Buthuge numbers of species went extinct from climate change. The Earth today is about 4–5°C warmer than in the last ice age, when Manhattan was under a mile of ice, ...
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Thought you’d seen it all this political season? An ad from Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes criticizes Sen. Mitch McConnell for his vote on a bill that President Obama praised, and even thanked McConnell by name for supporting. The Grimes ad says McConnell “even voted to end the payroll tax credit” and refers in small print to McConnell’s vote in favor of the fiscal cliff d...
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France coach Philippe Saint-Andre admitted he is worried about his team's ability to play successive tough matches just 10 months ...
Lancaster tells England to beware wounded WallabiesEngland's flanker Chris Robshaw wins the ball in the line-out during the Autumn International rugby union Test match between England and Samoa at Twickenham Stadium, southwest of London on November 22, 2014
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Radionova and Russia rule on the ice in BordeauxRussian figure skater Elena Radionova performs during the ladies short program of the Eric Bompard Trophy competition in Bordeaux, southwestern France, on November 21, 2014
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Messi breaks Liga goals record with hat-trickAtletico Madrid's French forward Antoine Griezmann kicks the ball during the Spanish league football match Club Atletico de Madrid vs Malaga CF in Madrid on November 22, 2014
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Ko, Lewis fight for bonus as Granada grabs leadJulieta Granada of Paraguay plays a shot on the sixth hole during the third round of the CME Group Tour Championship at Tiburon Golf Club on November 22, 2014 in Naples, Florida
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Davis Cup glory in sight for FedererSwitzerland's Stanislas Wawrinka (R) returns the ball next to teammate Roger Federer during the doubles tennis match on the second day of the Davis Cup final between France and Switzerland in Villeneuve-d'Ascq, France, on November 22, 2014
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Papadakis, Cizeron dance to gold at Trophee BompardGabriella Papadakis and Guillaume Cizeron from France perform during the pairs free skating at the Eric Bompard Trophy competition in Bordeaux, southwestern France, on November 22, 2014
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Serbia 'outrage' after fan killed in IstanbulSerbia expressed outrage Saturday after a Red Star Belgrade basketball fan was stabbed to death in Istanbul
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Man United edge Arsenal, Chelsea pull awayChelsea's Brazilian-born Spanish striker Diego Costa (R) shoots at goal during the English Premier League football match between Chelsea and West Bromwich Albion in London on November 22, 2014
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