www.tipnews.info
March 28, 2017
Nicolas Magud
Nicolas Magud
Senior Economist at the International Monetary Fund
Exchange rate pass-through – the rate at which consumer prices rise following a depreciation of the currency – is an important statistic in international macroeconomics. It has been on the minds of emerging market policymakers recently, as their currencies fall. Previous research has reported wide variation in exchange rate pass-through across countries and over time, though mo...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
President Donald Trump’s new executive order on foreign nationals entering the U.S. says “more than 300? refugees in the United States “are currently the subjects of counterterrorism investigations.” Attorney General Jeff Sessions repeated that figure in his remarks on the new order. But it is a statistic without any context. The White House and Department of Justice have de...
Ludovic Gauvin
Ludovic Gauvin
Economist, Banque de France
So far, the link between debt repayment and GDP has been limited to a mechanism that is like a 'better fortunes' clause. Investors accept a sovereign debt restructuring, while hoping to benefit from higher yields if the situation in the country improves. As such, warrants linked to real growth have been widely used in some major sovereign debt restructuring since the 1990s (Arg...
Samuel Bentolila
Samuel Bentolila
Professor of Economics, CEMFI; CEPR Research Fellow
One of the most tangible legacies of the Great Recession is a surge in the incidence of long-term unemployment, especially in Spain. This is not a new problem – as the title of the 1995 CEPR report, Spanish Unemployment: Is There a Solution?, attests (Andres et al. 1995) – but it is a massive challenge. In 2016Q3, 47% of the unemployed in the European Union (EU) had...
Luis Cubeddu
Luis Cubeddu
Head, Open Economy Division, IMF Research Department
Basic economic theory suggests that saving should flow from relatively wealthy, capital-rich countries to poorer countries where capital is scarce and profitable investment opportunities should therefore be abundant. While that pattern broadly held true before WWI, it has been harder to observe after WWII, as stressed by Robert Lucas (1990) nearly three decades ago. Indeed, aro...
Elias Papaioannou
Elias Papaioannou
Associate Professor of Economics, London Business School and CEPR Research Affiliate
The second half of the 20th century has seen an unprecedented increase in standards of living across the globe. It is natural that these post-war decades, which have heralded major technological breakthroughs, should have received lavish attention from economists, eager to understand the variation in economic performance across countr...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
With no evidence, President Donald Trump called it a “fact” that “President Obama was tapping my phones in October, just prior to Election!” He compared the alleged surveillance to the criminal acts of “Nixon/Watergate.” It was a startling and serious allegation about a former president, made in a series...
Thorsten Beck
Thorsten Beck
Professor of Economics and Chairman of the European Banking Center at Tilburg University
An extensive literature has not only shown that natural resources can exacerbate challenges of macroeconomic management, but points to a fundamental problem faced by producers of natural resources: how to transform subsoil wealth into productive assets such as financial, human, and physical capital (van der Ploeg and Venables 2012). The financial sector has been shown to have a...
Andrea Brandolini
Andrea Brandolini
Head of Statistical Analysis Directorate, Bank of Italy
“I am not sure that I will be able to finish [a book he was writing on measuring global poverty, building on Atkinson (2017)], but it is quite interesting to read all the different country studies for places that I scarcely knew existed (like the Solomon Islands!). I keep an atlas on my desk! I am very impressed with the overall quality of the work being produced in statist...
Wyplosz Charles
Wyplosz Charles
Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva; Director of the International Centre for Money and Banking Studies.
The IMF has now released its self-evaluation report on the programme for Greece between 2012 and 2016 (IMF 2017). This report admits most, if not all, of the glaring mistakes and calls for significant changes. Unfortunately, it does not always get to the bottom of why these mistakes were made. The requirement that the IMF self-assesses and publishes its interventions in the ...
Michael McMahon
Michael McMahon
Assistant Professor of the Department of Economics, University of Warwick
The UK government’s new Economy and Industrial Strategy Cabinet Committee met for the first time in August 2016. Charged with delivering ‘an economy that works for everyone, with a strong industrial strategy at its heart’, the committee is chaired by the prime minister and attended by the chancellor of the exchequer and the secretaries of state of ten other ministries.1
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
President Donald Trump said there has been a “tremendous” increase in autism in U.S. children. There has been a large increase in the reported cases of autism, but scientists don’t know if this is due to a broadening of the disorder’s definition and greater efforts in diagnosis or an actual increase in the number of individuals w...
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Princeton University
The decline of manufacturing employment in industrialised countries has left behind an urban shadow: a number of cities with slowly declining populations and income per capita. There are many examples, but perhaps the most iconic is the city of Detroit, a city where Ford invented the automotive production line and which still hosts the headquarters of the main US car-manufactur...
Tessa Bold
Tessa Bold
Assistant Professor, Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES), Stockholm University
Every day, individuals face economic risks such as job loss, sickness, a death in the family, or simply the unexpected need to replace durables. Similarly, regions may experience failed harvests, natural disasters, or the unexpected economic decline of important sectors. Thankfully, we can reduce the welfare consequences of such risks by sharing them with other households, regi...
Yasuyuki Todo
Yasuyuki Todo
Professor and the Head of the Department of International Studies, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, University of Tokyo
New US President Donald Trump has announced the country’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and his intention to impose a heavy tariff on imports from Mexico. A wave of protectionist policies is rising around the world, as evidenced by Britain's decision to leave the EU and Indonesia's imposition of export restrictions on raw mining resources. Against this ba...
David Weinstein
David Weinstein
Carl S. Shoup Professor of the Japanese Economy and Associate Director of Research at the Center for Japanese Economy and Business
Modern finance has increasingly been characterised by higher financial concentration. Federal Reserve data show that in 2010 the three largest US institutions – Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Citigroup – held 49% of all banking assets. In Japan, the three largest ‘megabanks’ (SMBC, Mizuho, and MUFG) account for just over half of all lending to listed corporations, and evidence...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
In a pre-Super Bowl interview on Fox, President Donald Trump claimed sanctuary cities “breed crime.” But limited research on the effect of such policies has found no evidence that they lead to overall increases in crime rates. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement documented nearly 2,000 cases in which cities with sanctuary policies refused to honor ICE detainers, and una...
Jota Ishikawa
Jota Ishikawa
Professor of International Economics, Hitotsubashi University and Research Fellow, RIETI
In traditional models of international trade, such as the Ricardian model or the Heckscher-Ohlin model, transport costs are assumed away for simplicity. In the real world, however, we cannot ignore transport costs. As a rough estimate of representative trade costs for industrialised countries, Anderson and van Wincoop (2004) report that the ad valorem tax equivalent of transpor...
Gustavo A. Marrero
Gustavo A. Marrero
Professor of Economics and Director, Research Center of Social Inequality and Governance (CEDESOG), University of La Laguna
Much has been written about the relationship between inequality and economic growth, yet a consensus on (even) the sign of this relationship has yet to emerge: Is high inequality today good or bad for future income growth prospects? What makes this a hard question to answer is the fact that there are arguably a variety of different channels via which inequality may have an impa...
Thorvaldur Gylfason
Thorvaldur Gylfason
Professor of Economics, University of Iceland and CEPR Research Fellow
Gains from trade arise from specialising domestic production in those goods in which a country has a comparative advantage. There can, however, be too much of a good thing. Excessive specialisation creates risk. Should an over-dominant specialised sector be hurt, its problems may damage the rest of the national economy. Hence the need for eco...
FactCheck.org
FactCheck.org
A Project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
Sen. Bernie Sanders claimed that “the cause of” the spike in earthquakes in Oklahoma “is fracking.” But it’s more complicated than that. The cause involves many factors — primarily increased wastewater disposal from all oil and gas operations, including from fracking. Other factors include Oklahoma’s geology and high oil prices. Sanders, a 2016 Democratic presidential can...
Ross Levine
Ross Levine
Willis H. Booth Chair in Banking and Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
Editor's note: This column first appeared as a chapter in the Vox eBook, The Long Economic and Political Shadow of History, Volume 1, available to download here. Countries have followed divergent paths of economic development since European colonisation. Som...
Ufuk Akcigit
Ufuk Akcigit
Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Chicago
A pressing issue facing policymakers around the globe today is how to generate long-term economic growth through technological innovation. While breakthroughs of the past such as the railroad, electricity, and the automobile led to significant progress, growth may be slowing down in recent years as new innovations are becoming increasingly hard ...
William Kerr
William Kerr
Assistant Professor, Harvard Business School
High-skilled workers play a central and starring role in today’s knowledge economy. Workers with valuable and transferrable skills have a higher propensity to migrate both domestically and abroad. Yet, not all high-income destinations are equally attractive in the professional and social opportunities they present for immigrants. Countries differ in their geographic accessibili...
Christian Thimann
Christian Thimann
AXA Group, Paris, and Paris School of Economics
The insurance sector in the Eurozone manages €7.3 trillion in assets, employs about one million people directly, plus many outsourced employees and independent intermediaries, and it has virtually every household and firm as a client (ECB 2016). By managing risks across clients and investors, insurance companies enable individual and collective social, economic, and financial a...
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